Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251020 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.2 38.9 33.4 39.0 47.9 45.6 45.6 36.9 U U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 19.0 18.0 14.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 92.4 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 84.8 84.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 21.0 14.0 31.0 3.0 -26.0 24.0 28.0 N U U N U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 60.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 60.0 54.0 N N N N N U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.6% 1.9% 2.8% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 6.4% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 1.1% 2.9% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 2.8% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 SH042026 251020 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.