Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251020 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.90 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.1 31.5 36.6 41.7 38.4 46.5 42.1 46.8 U U U VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 19.0 15.0 10.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 89.4 81.6 81.6 81.6 81.6 79.8 79.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 5.0 25.0 38.0 -10.0 13.0 24.0 31.0 N U U N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 66.0 63.0 56.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.8% 2.2% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 2.5% 5.2% 3.8% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 1.1% 2.2% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.0% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 SH042026 251020 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.90 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.