Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  40.4  38.8  36.4  42.1  38.9  39.5  38.7  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  15.0   6.0  10.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.6  76.6  76.6  76.6  69.4  67.7  67.7  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  30.0  10.0  21.0   1.0  13.0  14.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 SH042026 251021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.