Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251021 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.60 65.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 37.8 34.2 38.9 40.5 39.3 43.2 38.6 U U U U U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 20.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 10.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 67.7 69.4 73.0 76.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 10.0 21.0 24.0 13.0 9.0 12.0 -35.0 N U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 68.0 65.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 53.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.2% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 SH042026 251021 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.60 65.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.