Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251022 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 63.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.7 38.9 42.2 41.2 28.6 31.2 33.2 27.0 VU U VU VU N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.4 69.4 67.7 69.4 61.1 67.7 62.7 56.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 8.0 23.0 22.0 -23.0 -45.0 -24.0 -2.0 U U U U VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 53.0 55.0 50.0 54.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 SH042026 251022 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 63.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.