Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251022 06UTC Storm Located at : -10.50 62.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 39.9 36.8 32.0 33.6 27.6 29.7 28.0 U U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.4 67.7 62.7 62.7 61.1 66.0 56.5 56.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 23.0 -4.0 11.0 -23.0 -20.0 -9.0 34.0 U U U U VU VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 62.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.52 SH042026 251022 06UTC Storm Located at : -10.50 62.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.