Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251022 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.70 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 35.7 29.4 27.4 27.1 29.7 33.6 22.5 U U N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.4 67.7 67.7 61.1 67.7 59.6 56.5 58.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 -4.0 15.0 -21.0 -41.0 -34.0 20.0 -20.0 U U U VU VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 53.0 56.0 50.0 55.0 56.0 61.0 54.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 -1.0 -4.0 -6.0 -0.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.54 SH042026 251022 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.70 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.