Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  31.7  31.3  30.8  37.6  42.3  41.9  40.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0  10.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  74.4  74.4  78.0  74.4  72.7  69.3  66.1  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   4.0 -16.0 -13.0 -45.0  -9.0   2.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -0.0   2.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 SH042026 251023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.