Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  30.7  31.8  31.2  42.9  39.1  38.1  31.5  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0  11.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  89.4  93.0  91.2  87.7  84.3  81.1  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -16.0 -13.0 -18.0 -34.0 -17.0  31.0   1.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 SH042026 251023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.