Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251023 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 36.0 32.2 32.8 43.0 44.0 42.3 48.5 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 13.0 11.0 13.0 9.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.8 93.0 93.0 91.2 87.7 84.3 81.1 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 -12.0 -6.0 -18.0 -9.0 2.0 14.0 -10.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 54.0 53.0 52.0 52.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 SH042026 251023 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.