Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251024 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.60 56.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 36.5 45.8 38.9 39.9 40.9 40.9 38.9 U U VU U U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 13.0 11.0 11.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 86.2 86.2 84.4 79.3 82.7 81.0 86.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 8.0 17.0 26.0 9.0 -36.0 -50.0 -29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 55.0 55.0 53.0 49.0 53.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 SH042026 251024 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.60 56.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.