Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251024 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.20 55.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 46.1 41.9 40.7 50.4 45.8 45.1 38.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 15.0 15.0 11.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.6 93.0 91.2 93.0 91.2 87.7 89.4 91.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 17.0 26.0 36.0 -4.0 -58.0 -48.0 -4.0 U U U N U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 2.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 SH042026 251024 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.20 55.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.