Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251024 12UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 54.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.9 37.6 33.9 42.4 42.7 42.3 33.5 36.5 VU U U VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 11.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 96.2 94.4 98.0 94.4 94.4 94.4 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 11.0 14.0 29.0 -6.0 -38.0 -57.0 -23.0 U U U N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 54.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 -0.0 2.0 1.0 -0.0 3.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 SH042026 251024 12UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 54.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.