Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.80     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  34.0  42.3  47.0  40.3  41.0  32.0  33.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  10.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  98.0  98.0  98.0  94.4  94.4  94.4  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  14.0  29.0  -2.0 -26.0 -59.0 -29.0 -20.0  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  55.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  49.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.88

 SH042026 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.80     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.