Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251025 00UTC Storm Located at : -8.60 52.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.7 40.7 48.3 43.8 40.1 32.5 28.6 25.3 U VU VU VU U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 9.0 13.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 99.8 98.0 96.2 98.0 94.4 96.2 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 1.0 16.0 3.0 -25.0 -50.0 -23.0 9.0 U U U U VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 55.0 52.0 45.0 51.0 U U U U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -0.0 2.0 2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 SH042026 251025 00UTC Storm Located at : -8.60 52.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.