Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251025 06UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 51.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.9 44.1 37.5 35.3 31.0 24.3 26.1 30.3 VU VU U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 12.0 18.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 98.0 96.2 98.0 96.2 96.2 98.0 96.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 -1.0 -12.0 -10.0 1.0 -13.0 -18.0 -8.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 SH042026 251025 06UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 51.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.