Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251026 12UTC Storm Located at : -7.20 46.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.8 31.5 26.3 22.5 15.8 16.2 23.3 24.1 U U N N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 10.0 11.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.0 97.7 101.2 101.2 97.7 96.0 91.1 88.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -61.0 -62.0 -53.0 -45.0 -33.0 -50.0 13.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 43.0 46.0 49.0 55.0 55.0 62.0 63.0 VU VU VU U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 SH042026 251026 12UTC Storm Located at : -7.20 46.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.