Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.50     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  26.1  25.1  20.6  19.6  17.0  22.3  27.5  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  11.0  13.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.7 102.7 104.4 106.2 106.2 102.7  99.3  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -61.0 -54.0 -45.0 -39.0 -44.0 -31.0   7.0  15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  47.0  46.0  53.0  55.0  62.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  -0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 SH042026 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.50     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.