Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251027 12UTC Storm Located at : -6.40 40.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 31.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.1 23.7 22.1 22.4 25.1 24.2 29.7 27.3 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.0 106.2 104.4 102.7 97.7 96.1 93.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -44.0 -36.0 -42.0 -38.0 -33.0 -55.0 -53.0 -50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 63.0 61.0 68.0 72.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.78 SH042026 251027 12UTC Storm Located at : -6.40 40.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.