Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.90    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.5  28.0  33.5  28.4  27.0  27.2  25.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  55.0  42.0  36.0  72.0  40.0   0.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        8.1%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       40.6%       30.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       25.4%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       25.4%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       20.3%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       36.5%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       16.9%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       17.7%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        9.6%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h       19.2%       21.3%       20.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 SH052026 251118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.90    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.5  28.0  33.5  28.4  27.0  27.2  25.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%