Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.50    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  35.4  36.3  32.8  32.5  23.6  22.9  22.7  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  60.0  68.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  33.0  24.0  61.0  36.0  13.0  -8.0  -5.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   5.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0   3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        8.1%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       31.1%       25.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.4%       18.5%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       18.5%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       16.1%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       21.6%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        7.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%       10.2%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.3%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%       11.5%       12.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 SH052026 251119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.50    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  35.4  36.3  32.8  32.5  23.6  22.9  22.7  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   5.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%