Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251119 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.70 132.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.6 36.6 33.5 29.3 26.0 23.8 23.7 24.2 U U U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 71.0 69.0 75.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 24.0 61.0 46.0 10.0 1.0 -23.0 -1.0 N U N N U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 4.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.4% 5.0% 5.2% 25kt / 24h 16.4% 27.7% 22.0% 30kt / 24h 8.7% 16.3% 12.5% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 16.3% 10.3% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 13.0% 8.3% 45kt / 36h 8.3% 19.9% 14.1% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 7.1% 5.2% 55kt / 48h 19.0% 11.9% 15.4% 70kt / 48h 6.0% 4.5% 5.2% 65kt / 72h 25.9% 11.2% 18.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 SH052026 251119 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.70 132.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.6 36.6 33.5 29.3 26.0 23.8 23.7 24.2 F F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 4.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%