Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.50    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  45.8  28.9  27.8  23.9  21.4  19.2  29.2  N VU  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  63.0  71.0  71.0  76.0  71.0  83.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  20.0  23.0  24.0  14.0 -24.0 -32.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.5%        9.0%       12.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       36.4%       31.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       27.1%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%       27.1%       20.6%
 40kt / 24h       14.0%       23.3%       18.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.9%       25.7%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        7.7%       10.7%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       14.7%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        5.3%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       10.6%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 SH052026 251119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.50    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  45.8  28.9  27.8  23.9  21.4  19.2  29.2  N VF  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%