Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251119 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.9 29.0 29.2 26.1 21.8 20.3 22.6 30.1 VU N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 68.0 68.0 71.0 76.0 71.0 83.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 22.0 24.0 35.0 3.0 -32.0 -29.0 -17.0 U U U N U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 62.0 U N U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.5% 5.6% 7.6% 25kt / 24h 18.0% 27.6% 22.8% 30kt / 24h 11.8% 18.5% 15.2% 35kt / 24h 7.9% 18.5% 13.2% 40kt / 24h 7.9% 15.5% 11.7% 45kt / 36h 11.8% 17.8% 14.8% 55kt / 36h 5.0% 6.4% 5.7% 55kt / 48h 10.5% 11.4% 10.9% 70kt / 48h 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 65kt / 72h 8.1% 7.2% 7.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 SH052026 251119 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.9 29.0 29.2 26.1 21.8 20.3 22.6 30.1 VF N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 62.0 F N F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%