Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80    133.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.5  30.1  25.3  21.7  20.8  27.2  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  68.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  83.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  20.0  34.0   9.0  17.0 -25.0 -28.0   4.0  U  U  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.6%       13.6%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       41.6%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       34.9%       27.9%
 35kt / 24h       17.6%       34.9%       26.3%
 40kt / 24h       17.6%       31.4%       24.5%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%       24.5%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.7%       10.2%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       16.9%       15.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        4.7%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        7.7%        8.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 SH052026 251120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80    133.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.5  30.1  25.3  21.7  20.8  27.2  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%