Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251120 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.00    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  29.7  25.4  22.5  20.2  17.5  26.4  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  81.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  35.0   9.0  25.0 -16.0  -2.0 -11.0  29.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        4.8%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.9%       25.1%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       16.2%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       16.2%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       14.6%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       13.7%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        4.6%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       11.6%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        2.8%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        5.1%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 SH052026 251120 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.00    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  29.7  25.4  22.5  20.2  17.5  26.4  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%