Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  22.7  22.8  19.7  20.8  26.1  31.5  35.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  75.0  73.0  81.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  17.0  21.0  20.0   1.0  -6.0  -5.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       11.9%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.4%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%        5.4%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        1.4%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%        5.8%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        1.0%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%        2.7%        8.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 SH052026 251120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  22.7  22.8  19.7  20.8  26.1  31.5  35.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%