Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.40    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  22.8  19.7  21.5  20.0  26.4  34.0  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  73.0  56.0  57.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  21.0  20.0  -7.0  -5.0 -13.0   7.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        7.4%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       34.2%       27.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.9%       25.1%       19.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       25.1%       17.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       23.3%       16.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       19.9%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%        7.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%       12.3%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        2.9%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        3.6%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.04

 SH052026 251120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.40    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  22.8  19.7  21.5  20.0  26.4  34.0  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%