Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.30    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.3  20.5  19.2  25.2  31.6  33.3  31.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  73.0  82.0  78.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  18.0 -23.0   2.0  16.0 -25.0   8.0  -3.0  U  U VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  -0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.7%       26.8%       26.2%
 25kt / 24h       45.7%       62.3%       54.0%
 30kt / 24h       34.7%       61.0%       47.9%
 35kt / 24h       27.9%       61.0%       44.5%
 40kt / 24h       25.8%       58.1%       42.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.2%       40.6%       36.4%
 55kt / 36h       19.6%       22.6%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       21.0%       23.3%       22.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        7.0%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%        8.1%       10.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 SH052026 251121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.30    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.3  20.5  19.2  25.2  31.6  33.3  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  -0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%