Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.70    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.5  19.2  21.4  26.5  30.3  27.0  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  84.0  81.0  76.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -23.0   2.0  14.0   0.0  -6.0  21.0 -12.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0  -0.0   8.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.9%       26.7%       24.8%
 25kt / 24h       45.7%       62.5%       54.1%
 30kt / 24h       34.0%       61.7%       47.9%
 35kt / 24h       30.9%       61.7%       46.3%
 40kt / 24h       18.7%       58.2%       38.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.1%       38.6%       33.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       20.9%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.8%       20.8%       19.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        6.0%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%        7.3%        8.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH052026 251121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.70    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.5  19.2  21.4  26.5  30.3  27.0  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  51.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0  -0.0   8.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%