Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.10    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  24.6  25.7  29.4  28.8  29.8  31.1  38.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  78.0  78.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  14.0  31.0  36.0   1.0 -15.0  10.0 -26.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   1.0   7.0   8.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.6%       22.1%       24.8%
 25kt / 24h       40.2%       50.3%       45.3%
 30kt / 24h       30.5%       46.7%       38.6%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       46.7%       36.0%
 40kt / 24h       25.2%       44.4%       34.8%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       22.4%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h       11.4%        9.1%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%       13.1%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        2.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        3.1%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 SH052026 251121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.10    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  24.6  25.7  29.4  28.8  29.8  31.1  38.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   1.0   7.0   8.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%