Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.70    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.5  29.4  27.7  29.4  30.9  33.9  37.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  61.0  73.0  78.0  74.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  31.0  36.0   6.0  14.0 -19.0 -23.0 -28.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   7.0  10.0   3.0   3.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.6%       20.7%       23.1%
 25kt / 24h       39.2%       49.5%       44.3%
 30kt / 24h       28.4%       46.3%       37.4%
 35kt / 24h       24.4%       46.3%       35.4%
 40kt / 24h       24.4%       42.4%       33.4%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       22.2%       22.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%        8.9%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       12.2%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        2.6%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        2.8%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.62

 SH052026 251121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.70    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.5  29.4  27.7  29.4  30.9  33.9  37.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   7.0  10.0   3.0   3.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%