Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80    131.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  29.5  29.9  29.8  28.3  32.4  40.0  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  78.0  82.0  79.0  59.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  54.0  -9.0 -20.0 -26.0 -11.0  -2.0 -41.0  U  N  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  11.0  11.0   2.0   4.0  -3.0  -0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.5%       32.0%       49.7%
 25kt / 24h       51.1%       49.3%       50.2%
 30kt / 24h       48.3%       45.6%       47.0%
 35kt / 24h       47.7%       45.6%       46.7%
 40kt / 24h       47.7%       44.1%       45.9%
 45kt / 36h       41.9%       26.5%       34.2%
 55kt / 36h       19.2%       12.5%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%        6.9%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        2.1%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 SH052026 251122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80    131.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  29.5  29.9  29.8  28.3  32.4  40.0  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  11.0  11.0   2.0   4.0  -3.0  -0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%