Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251122 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.00 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 28.1 30.3 27.6 30.0 32.8 31.9 27.0 N N N N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 84.0 85.0 82.0 76.0 72.0 70.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 -10.0 -20.0 -21.0 4.0 -28.0 -10.0 -40.0 N U VU VU U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 11.0 1.0 4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.7% 31.2% 48.4% 25kt / 24h 48.8% 46.3% 47.6% 30kt / 24h 44.7% 43.4% 44.0% 35kt / 24h 44.2% 43.4% 43.8% 40kt / 24h 39.0% 38.4% 38.7% 45kt / 36h 44.4% 26.9% 35.7% 55kt / 36h 17.3% 13.2% 15.2% 55kt / 48h 18.0% 5.3% 11.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.48 SH052026 251122 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.00 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 28.1 30.3 27.6 30.0 32.8 31.9 27.0 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 11.0 1.0 4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1%