Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251122 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 30.3 27.9 28.0 30.8 35.3 27.9 28.8 N N N N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 82.0 82.0 79.0 55.0 37.0 50.0 77.0 N N N N N U N N Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -20.0 -22.0 -26.0 -11.0 -8.0 -40.0 -57.0 U VU VU VU U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 11.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.4% 6.5% 11.5% 25kt / 24h 14.6% 14.9% 14.7% 30kt / 24h 14.6% 9.9% 12.3% 35kt / 24h 9.7% 9.4% 9.5% 40kt / 24h 9.6% 9.0% 9.3% 45kt / 36h 14.1% 4.1% 9.1% 55kt / 36h 3.4% 1.1% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 3.9% 1.5% 2.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.44 SH052026 251122 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 30.3 27.9 28.0 30.8 35.3 27.9 28.8 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 11.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.5% 1.3%