Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251122 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.40 129.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 56.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 27.6 27.5 30.5 31.4 31.7 27.4 26.2 N N N N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 82.0 76.0 59.0 52.0 50.0 77.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -22.0 -26.0 4.0 -28.0 -10.0 -40.0 -44.0 VU VU VU U VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 49.0 53.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.8% 6.4% 9.1% 25kt / 24h 10.3% 13.4% 11.9% 30kt / 24h 8.8% 9.9% 9.4% 35kt / 24h 5.9% 9.4% 7.7% 40kt / 24h 5.9% 7.0% 6.5% 45kt / 36h 12.0% 3.8% 7.9% 55kt / 36h 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.32 SH052026 251122 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.40 129.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 27.6 27.5 30.5 31.4 31.7 27.4 26.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 49.0 53.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 47.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.1% 2.0%