Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  32.0  35.3  35.2  33.2  23.6  24.5  26.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  59.0  34.0  33.0  22.0  27.0  50.0  84.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -2.0  -1.0 -16.0 -15.0 -42.0 -31.0 -39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   8.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        5.3%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%        9.1%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        6.1%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%        5.9%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%        4.3%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%        2.0%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 SH052026 251123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  32.0  35.3  35.2  33.2  23.6  24.5  26.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   8.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%