Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  34.5  35.2  39.2  29.6  24.7  29.4  27.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  22.0  84.0  18.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -1.0 -16.0   1.0 -59.0 -52.0 -30.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.3%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        4.1%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.6%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        1.0%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 SH052026 251123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  34.5  35.2  39.2  29.6  24.7  29.4  27.9  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.0%        5.0%