Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  34.9  38.5  32.9  24.0  25.0  26.8  26.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  31.0  37.0  27.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  60.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -16.0   1.0 -16.0 -42.0 -31.0 -39.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.7%        6.3%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        7.8%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        5.4%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        5.3%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%        3.2%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h       19.8%        4.3%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.06

 SH052026 251123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  34.9  38.5  32.9  24.0  25.0  26.8  26.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.7%        5.3%