Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  34.5  27.7  21.1  21.6  25.1  21.1  29.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  31.0  37.0  37.0  80.0  85.0  79.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  29.0  18.0   9.0  22.0  30.0  39.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        3.5%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%        9.6%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%        6.6%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%        6.5%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%        4.5%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h       29.6%        6.0%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        1.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%        1.6%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.06

 SH052026 251124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  34.5  27.7  21.1  21.6  25.1  21.1  29.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%