Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  31.3  25.6  22.5  25.5  25.1  28.1  44.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  31.0  22.0  80.0  79.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -23.0 -51.0 -58.0 -35.0  -3.0  10.0  -6.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        0.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        0.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.08

 SH052026 251124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  31.3  25.6  22.5  25.5  25.1  28.1  44.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       15.3%        7.7%