Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  27.8  27.4  26.0  30.0  23.0  28.3  24.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  71.0  52.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -34.0 -69.0 -46.0 -10.0  -9.0  17.0  19.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        0.8%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 SH052026 251124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  27.8  27.4  26.0  30.0  23.0  28.3  24.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.7%        5.3%