Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  28.7  26.3  27.2  30.6  32.2  42.1  34.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  74.6  61.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -69.0 -46.0 -28.0 -13.0 -36.0  -7.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  48.0  51.0  50.0  56.0  54.0  56.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   7.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.04

 SH052026 251124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  28.7  26.3  27.2  30.6  32.2  42.1  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  48.0  51.0  50.0  56.0  54.0  56.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   7.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%