Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.7  32.1  34.9  33.8  40.6  34.8  34.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  71.0  71.0  53.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -49.0 -74.0 -39.0 -32.0 -16.0 -17.0   8.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  47.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  51.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH052026 251125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.7  32.1  34.9  33.8  40.6  34.8  34.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  47.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  51.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%