Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.5  34.9  35.9  34.4  38.9  34.1  39.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  72.0  52.0  52.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 106.5 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -73.0 -39.0 -32.0  -8.0 -27.0  -2.0   4.0  -6.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  49.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH052026 251125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.5  34.9  35.9  34.4  38.9  34.1  39.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  49.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%