Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  33.7  32.4  33.9  44.9  40.3  38.9  36.1  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  52.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 118.6 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -19.0  15.0  17.0 -14.0   6.0  24.0  12.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 SH052026 251125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  33.7  32.4  33.9  44.9  40.3  38.9  36.1  N  F  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%