Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  33.1  33.7  34.1  44.6  42.9  60.5  60.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 108.0  94.6  94.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  15.0  17.0  -7.0  -8.0  12.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  58.0  54.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0 -18.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH052026 251125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  33.1  33.7  34.1  44.6  42.9  60.5  60.5  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  58.0  54.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0 -18.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%