Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052026 251126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  31.2  32.2  33.4  36.8  39.0  32.2  38.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   6.0   0.0   6.0  23.0  14.0  -2.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  52.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH052026 251126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  31.2  32.2  33.4  36.8  39.0  32.2  38.6  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  52.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%