Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052026 251126 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 127.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.30 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 34.8 39.9 44.2 52.2 48.9 68.6 78.6 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 144.3 114.8 106.0 101.1 80.5 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 23.0 4.0 -18.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 45.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 1.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.0 18.0 34.0 N N N F F F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 SH052026 251126 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 127.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 34.8 39.9 44.2 52.2 48.9 68.6 78.6 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 45.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 1.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.0 18.0 34.0 N N N U U U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%