Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  41.6  44.5  37.4  32.8  33.5  37.0  32.2  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  36.0  38.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         74.4  74.4  78.6  78.6  82.9  82.9  82.9  89.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  86.0  63.0  30.0  45.0  43.0  46.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        0.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        2.3%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        0.9%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        0.8%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        0.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 SH072026 251214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  41.6  44.5  37.4  32.8  33.5  37.0  32.2  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%